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EURUSD 25th November, 2013

As expected the euro started moving towards the downside, although since Mondays are usually slow we’re still away from reaching our projected targets.

We’re updating our counts to reflect the most recent price action and to present tighter targets and invalidation points.

Hourly Main Count

– Invalidation Point: 1.35851
– Confirmation Point: 1.3491
– Downwards Target : 1.3465 – 1.3376
– Wave number: Subminuette iii
– Wave structure: Motive
– Wave pattern: Impulse

Elliott Wave chart analysis for the EURUSD for 25th November, 2013. Please click on the charts below to enlarge.

Main Daily Wave Count

eurusd20131125daily

The bigger picture sees the euro within primary wave B to the upside, and within that in intermediate wave (C), and within that in minor wave 3.

Within minor wave 3, minute waves i unfolded as an impulse labeled minuette waves (i) through (v) and minute wave ii is most likely unfolding as a zigzag labeled minuette waves (a), (b) and (c).

This count expects the euro to continue moving downwards in minuette wave (c) to complete minute wave ii. This will be confirmed by movement below 1.3295.

At 1.3252 minuette wave (c) would reach 61.8% the length of minuette wave (a), then at 1.3168 minute wave ii would retrace 61.8% of minute wave i.

This wave count is invalidated by movement below 1.27567 as minute wave ii may not move beyond the start of minute wave i. It’s also invalidated by movement above 1.35851 as within minuette wave (c) no second wave may move beyond the start of the first wave.

Main Hourly Wave Count

eurusd20131125h1

This count sees that, within minuette wave (c), the euro has most likely completed subminuette waves i and ii.

Subminuette wave i unfolded as an impulse labeled micro waves 1 through 5.

Subminuette wave ii was a very deep correction which has retraced 85% of subminuette wave i and has unfolded as a zigzag labeled micro waves A, B and C.

Within subminuette wave iii, micro wave 1 seems to have unfolded as an impulse, although its subdivisions are not very clear on lower time frames. Micro wave 2 has retraced 61.8% of micro wave 1, so it’s either complete or near completion.

It’s possible that subminuette wave ii itself is still unfolding as a combination, but this is a low probability due to the depth of its correction.

This count expects the euro to continue moving downwards in micro wave 3 of subminuette wave iii. This will be initially confirmed by movement below 1.3491.

At 1.3465 micro wave 3 would reach 100% the length of micro wave 1, then at 1.3376 subminuette wave iii would reach 100% the length of subminuette wave i.

This wave count is invalidated by movement above 1.35851 as subminuette wave ii may not move beyond the start of subminuette wave i.

Alternate Daily Wave Count

eurusd20131125dailyalt

This alternate count addresses the possibility that minuette wave (c) and minute wave ii in general are already complete and that minute wave iii is now unfolding towards the upside.

This count is extremely low in probability as minuette wave (c) is exceptionally short in relation to minuette wave (a), in addition to its failing to make a new low beyond it.

This count expects the euro to continue moving towards the upside minute wave iii. This will be confirmed by movement above 1.3585.

At 1.4478 minute wave iii would reach 100% the length of minute wave i, then at 1.5145 it would reach 161.8% of its length.

This wave count is invalidated by movement below 1.34006 as within minute wave iii no second wave may move beyond the start of the first wave.

2 thoughts on “EURUSD 25th November, 2013”

  1. The h1 hourly main count confirmation is highlighted as 1.3491 but the chart has 1.3400 – which is it? and the confirmation versus invalidation is miles away for entry with terrible risk reward to target- not possible to trade on this.

  2. Dear Heather,

    Nice to see you again 🙂

    1) It’s actually both: 1.3491 is the initial confirmation for the lower-degree wave and 1.3400 is the final confirmation for the higher-degree wave. I apologize for forgetting to add the first on the chart.

    2) You’re right, the reward-to-risk ratio on this setup is slightly over 1-to-1, which is not very good. However, we can only take what the market gives us. In other words, not every day will present us with a suitable trading opportunity. And the purpose of our analysis is to be prepared when the right opportunity comes along 🙂

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