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EURUSD 22nd November, 2013

Yesterday we mentioned the possibility that the short-term upwards correction may still move further towards the upside, which is indeed what happened.

We’re updating our count to reflect the most recent price action and to present tighter targets and invalidation points.

Hourly Main Count

– Invalidation Point: 1.35851
– Confirmation Point: 1.3400
– Downwards Target : 1.3374 – 1.3260
– Wave number: Subminuette iii
– Wave structure: Motive
– Wave pattern: Impulse

Elliott Wave chart analysis for the EURUSD for 22nd November, 2013. Please click on the charts below to enlarge.

Main Daily Wave Count

eurusd20131122daily

The bigger picture sees the euro within primary wave B to the upside, and within that in intermediate wave (C), and within that in minor wave 3.

Within minor wave 3, minute waves i unfolded as an impulse labeled minuette waves (i) through (v) and minute wave ii is most likely unfolding as a zigzag labeled minuette waves (a), (b) and (c).

This count expects the euro to continue moving downwards in minuette wave (c) to complete minute wave ii. This will be confirmed by movement below 1.3295.

At 1.3252 minuette wave (c) would reach 61.8% the length of minuette wave (a), then at 1.3168 minute wave ii would retrace 61.8% of minute wave i.

This wave count is invalidated by movement below 1.27567 as minute wave ii may not move beyond the start of minute wave i. It’s also invalidated by movement above 1.35851 as within minuette wave (c) no second wave may move beyond the start of the first wave.

Main Hourly Wave Count

eurusd20131122h1

This count sees that, within minuette wave (c), the euro has most likely completed subminuette waves i and ii.

Subminuette wave i unfolded as an impulse labeled micro waves 1 through 5.

Subminuette wave ii was a very deep correction which has retraced 85% of subminuette wave i and has unfolded as a zigzag labeled micro waves A, B and C.

Micro wave A formed an impulse.

Micro wave B formed a running flat.

And micro wave C formed an impulse which has reached nearly 161.8% the length of micro wave A.

This count expects the euro to continue moving downwards in subminuette wave iii. This will be confirmed by movement below 1.3400.

At 1.3374, subminuette wave iii would reach 100% the length of subminuette wave i, then at 1.3260 it would reach 161.8% of its length.

This wave count is invalidated by movement above 1.35851 as subminuette wave ii may not move beyond the start of subminuette wave i.

Alternate Daily Wave Count

eurusd20131122dailyalt

This alternate count addresses the possibility that minuette wave (c) and minute wave ii in general are already complete and that minute wave iii is now unfolding towards the upside.

This count is extremely low in probability as minuette wave (c) is exceptionally short in relation to minuette wave (a), in addition to its failing to make a new low beyond it.

This count expects the euro to continue moving towards the upside minute wave iii. This will be confirmed by movement above 1.3585.

At 1.4478 minute wave iii would reach 100% the length of minute wave i, then at 1.5145 it would reach 161.8% of its length.

This wave count is invalidated by movement below 1.34006 as within minute wave iii no second wave may move beyond the start of the first wave.

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