As expected the euro moved towards the downside to reach our first target and exceed it by less than 2 pips before reversing towards the upside.
We’re updating our count to reflect the most recent price action and to present tighter targets and invalidation points.
Hourly Main Count
– Invalidation Point: 1.35851
– Confirmation Point: 1.3400
– Downwards Target : 1.3305 – 1.3190
– Wave number: Subminuette iii
– Wave structure: Motive
– Wave pattern: Impulse
Elliott Wave chart analysis for the EURUSD for 21st November, 2013. Please click on the charts below to enlarge.
Main Daily Wave Count
The bigger picture sees the euro within primary wave B to the upside, and within that in intermediate wave (C), and within that in minor wave 3.
Within minor wave 3, minute waves i unfolded as an impulse labeled minuette waves (i) through (v) and minute wave ii is most likely unfolding as a zigzag labeled minuette waves (a), (b) and (c).
This count expects the euro to continue moving downwards in minuette wave (c) to complete minute wave ii. This will be confirmed by movement below 1.3295.
At 1.3252 minuette wave (c) would reach 61.8% the length of minuette wave (a), then at 1.3168 minute wave ii would retrace 61.8% of minute wave i.
This wave count is invalidated by movement below 1.27567 as minute wave ii may not move beyond the start of minute wave i. It’s also invalidated by movement above 1.38335 as within minuette wave (c) no second wave may move beyond the start of the first wave.
Main Hourly Wave Count
This count sees that, within minuette wave (c), the euro has most likely completed subminuette waves i and ii.
Subminuette wave i unfolded as an impulse labeled micro waves 1 through 5.
Subminuette wave ii unfolded as a zigzag labeled micro waves A, B and C.
Micro wave A formed an impulse.
Micro wave B formed an ideal running flat which retraced 38.2% of micro wave A. Within it, submicro (B) retraced a typical 105% of submicro wave (A) and submicro wave (C) reached exactly 100% the length of submicro wave (A).
Micro wave C formed an impulse which has reached nearly 61.8% the length of micro wave A.
And overall, subminuette wave ii has retraced 50% of subminuette wave i.
This count expects the euro to continue moving downwards in subminuette wave iii. This will be confirmed by movement below 1.3400.
At 1.3305, subminuette wave iii would reach 100% the length of subminuette wave i, then at 1.3190 it would reach 161.8% of its length.
Note that if subminuette wave ii is not yet complete, then it may continue upwards to 1.3515 to retrace 61.8% of subminuette wave i. If this is the case, then the specified targets should be adjusted accordingly.
Also note that subminuette wave ii could be unfolding as a flat within which only wave A is complete as a zigzag. However, this is a lower probability count since the correction already seems a bit too deep for a flat.
This wave count is invalidated by movement above 1.35851 as subminuette wave ii may not move beyond the start of subminuette wave i.