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EURUSD 1st November, 2013

On the first day of November the euro grew even weaker against the U. S. dollar. Today we’ll review the pattern that has develop and see whether it calls for more weakness or a trend reversal.

Both of our counts expect similar price action during the day, but they differ in their expectations for the rest of the week.

We’re updating both main and alternate counts to reflect the most recent price action and to present tighter targets and invalidation points. And as usual we’ll use each count’s invalidation point as confirmation of the other count.

Hourly Main Count

– Invalidation Point: 1.37364 – 1.27554
– Confirmation Point: –
– Upwards Target : 1.3552 – 1.3596
– Wave number: Subminuette iv
– Wave structure: Corrective
– Wave pattern: Zigzag, Flat, Triangle, or Combination

Hourly Alternate Count

– Invalidation Point: 1.27554
– Confirmation Point: 1.3785
– Upwards Target : 1.4557 – 1.5222
– Wave number: Minute iii
– Wave structure: Motive
– Wave pattern: Impulse

Elliott Wave chart analysis for the EURUSD for 1st November, 2013. Please click on the charts below to enlarge.

Main Daily Wave Count

EURUSD daily 2013

The bigger picture sees the euro within primary wave B to the upside, and within that in intermediate wave (C) to the upside, and within that in minor wave 3 to the upside.

Within minor wave 3, minute waves i unfolded as an impulse labeled minuette waves (i) through (v) and is well contained within its Elliott channel.

This count expects that the euro is now moving downwards within minute wave ii, which is most likely unfolding as a zigzag. So far minute wave ii has retraced a little over 30% of minute wave i, so there’s a possibility that it’s already complete. But given the impulsive nature of this downwards movement, it’s more likely that the euro is still moving in minuette wave (a), which is to be followed by an upwards correction before continuing downwards again to complete minute wave ii.

At 1.3293 minute wave ii would retrace 50% of minute wave i, and at 1.3166 it would retrace 61.8% of its length.

This wave count is invalidated by movement below 1.27554 as minute wave ii may not move beyond the start of minute wave i. It’s also invalidated by movement above 1.38324 as within the zigzag of minute wave ii minuette wave (b) may not move beyond the start of minuette wave (a).

Main Hourly Wave Count

EURUSD hourly 2013

This count sees that the euro is now moving towards the downside in minuette wave (a) of minute wave ii. And given the strong nature of this downwards movement, it’s highly likely that minuette wave (a) is unfolding an impulse.

Within minuette wave (a), subminuette wave i unfolded as a leading diagonal labeled micro waves 1 through 5, subminuette wave ii formed an expanded flat labeled micro waves A, B and C, and subminuette wave iii formed a strong impulse labeled micro waves 1 through 5.

Micro wave 3 formed an extension labeled submicro waves (1) through (5), and submicro wave (3) also formed an extension labeled miniscule waves 1 through 5.

This count expects that subminuette wave iii is either complete or near completion and that the euro will move upwards or sideways in subminuette wave iv, which may unfold as any corrective pattern. At 1.3552 subminuette wave iv would retrace 23.6% of subminuette wave iii, and at 1.3596 it would retrace 38.2% of its length.

This wave count is invalidated by movement above 1.37364 as subminuette wave iv may not enter the price territory of subminuette wave i.

Alternate Hourly Wave Count

EURUSD hourly 2013

This count examines the possibility that minute wave ii is already complete or very near completion, having completed a zigzag labeled minuette waves (a), (b) and (c). This will be initially confirmed by movement above 1.3785.

This count expects minute wave iii to start unfolding soon towards the upside. At 1.4557 it would reach 100% the length of minute wave i, and at 1.5222 it would reach 161.8% of its length. We’ll be able to calculate shorter-term targets once minute wave iii begins to subdivide.

This wave count is invalidated by movement below 1.27554 as minute wave ii may not move beyond the start of minute wave i. And once the euro reaches our confirmation point we may raise the invalidation point to the end of minute wave ii.

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