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EURUSD 14th November, 2013

The euro spent the entire day moving in a sideways, overlapping manner, keeping away from all of our confirmation and invalidation points. This leaves both counts almost exactly as they were, with only a slight modification to their subdivisions.

We’re updating both main and alternate counts to reflect the most recent price action and to present tighter targets and invalidation points. And as usual we’ll use each count’s invalidation point as confirmation of the other count.

Hourly Main Count

– Invalidation Point: 1.34977
– Confirmation Point: 1.3390
– Downwards Target : 1.3239 – 1.3166
– Wave number: Minuette (c)
– Wave structure: Motive
– Wave pattern: Impulse or Ending Diagonal

Hourly Alternate Count

– Invalidation Point: 1.34468
– Confirmation Point: 1.3497
– Upwards Target : 1.3551 – 1.3627
– Wave number: Subminuette y
– Wave structure: Corrective
– Wave pattern: Zigzag

Elliott Wave chart analysis for the EURUSD for 14th November, 2013. Please click on the charts below to enlarge.

Main Daily Wave Count

EURUSD daily 2013

The bigger picture sees the euro within primary wave B to the upside, and within that in intermediate wave (C) to the upside, and within that in minor wave 3 to the upside.

Within minor wave 3, minute waves i unfolded as an impulse labeled minuette waves (i) through (v).

This count expects that the euro is now moving downwards within minute wave ii, which is most likely unfolding as a zigzag.

So far minute wave ii has retraced almost 50% of minute wave i, and it’s likely that the euro has completed minuette wave (a). Minuette wave (b) may be complete or it may still be unfolding towards the upside, to be followed by a continuation of downwards movement in minuette wave (c) to complete minute wave ii.

At 1.3293 minute wave ii would retrace 50% of minute wave i, and at 1.3166 it would retrace 61.8% of its length.

This wave count is invalidated by movement below 1.27554 as minute wave ii may not move beyond the start of minute wave i. It’s also invalidated by movement above 1.38324 as within the zigzag of minute wave ii minuette wave (b) may not move beyond the start of minuette wave (a).

Main Hourly Wave Count

EURUSD hourly 2013

This count examines the possibility that minuette wave (b) is complete, having unfolded as a double combination labeled subminuette waves w, x and y.

It’s possible that this entire correction is only wave A within minuette wave (b), which would then be unfolding as a flat. But we’ll leave this possibility aside for now unless the developing pattern suggests it back.

After that and within minuette wave (c), the subdivisions of subminuette wave i are very unclear and this count assumes that it unfolded as an impulse. Subminuette wave ii seems to be unfolding as a combination labeled micro waves W, X and Y, with micro wave W forming a zigzag and micro wave X having formed a contracting triangle labeled submicro waves (A) through (E).

This count expects the euro to move slightly towards the upside to complete micro wave Y of subminuette wave ii, before continuing towards the downside in subminuette waves iii through v of minuette wave (c). This would be confirmed by movement below 1.3390.

At 1.3293 minuette wave (c) would reach 38.2% the length of minuette wave (a) and also minute wave ii would retrace 50% of minute wave i, and then at 1.3166 minuette wave (c) would reach 61.8% the length of minuette wave (a) and also minute wave ii would retrace 61.8% of minute wave i.

This wave count is invalidated by movement above 1.34977 as within minuette wave (c) no second wave may move beyond the start of the first wave.

Alternate Hourly Wave Count

EURUSD hourly 2013

This count examines the possibility that minuette wave (b) is still unfolding towards the upside as a double combination labeled subminuette waves w, x and y.

Subminuette wave x seems to have unfolded as a 9-wave running triangle labeled micro waves (A) through (I).

This count expects the euro to continue moving towards the upside in subminuette wave y to complete minuette wave (b). This would be confirmed by movement above 1.3497.

At 1.3551 subminuette wave y would reach 61.8% the length of subminuette wave w and also minuette wave (b) would retrace nearly 50% of minuette wave (a), then at 1.3627 minuette wave (b) would retrace 61.8% of minuette wave (a).

This wave count is invalidated by movement below 1.33914. While normally this triangle would be invalidated by movement below its micro wave G, we’re keeping the invalidation point lower since we’re tracking an additional possible count which sees that subminuette wave y has already started with different, more complex subdivisions.

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