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EURUSD 13th November, 2013

As our main count expected the euro continued moving towards the upside and has reached our first target and exceeded it by 17 pips.

We’re updating both main and alternate counts to reflect the most recent price action and to present tighter targets and invalidation points. And as usual we’ll use each count’s invalidation point as confirmation of the other count.

Hourly Main Count

– Invalidation Point: 1.34977
– Confirmation Point: 1.3390
– Downwards Target : 1.3239 – 1.3166
– Wave number: Minuette (c)
– Wave structure: Motive
– Wave pattern: Impulse or Ending Diagonal

Hourly Alternate Count

– Invalidation Point: 1.33903
– Confirmation Point: 1.3497
– Upwards Target : 1.3551 – 1.3627
– Wave number: Subminuette y
– Wave structure: Corrective
– Wave pattern: Zigzag

Elliott Wave chart analysis for the EURUSD for 13th November, 2013. Please click on the charts below to enlarge.

Main Daily Wave Count

EURUSD daily 2013

The bigger picture sees the euro within primary wave B to the upside, and within that in intermediate wave (C) to the upside, and within that in minor wave 3 to the upside.

Within minor wave 3, minute waves i unfolded as an impulse labeled minuette waves (i) through (v).

This count expects that the euro is now moving downwards within minute wave ii, which is most likely unfolding as a zigzag.

So far minute wave ii has retraced almost 50% of minute wave i, and it’s likely that the euro has completed minuette wave (a). Minuette wave (b) may be complete or it may still be unfolding towards the upside, to be followed by a continuation of downwards movement in minuette wave (c) to complete minute wave ii.

At 1.3293 minute wave ii would retrace 50% of minute wave i, and at 1.3166 it would retrace 61.8% of its length.

This wave count is invalidated by movement below 1.27554 as minute wave ii may not move beyond the start of minute wave i. It’s also invalidated by movement above 1.38324 as within the zigzag of minute wave ii minuette wave (b) may not move beyond the start of minuette wave (a).

Main Hourly Wave Count

EURUSD hourly 2013

This count examines the possibility that minuette wave (b) is now complete, having unfolded as a double combination labeled subminuette waves w, x and y.

Subminuette wave w formed a zigzag labeled micro waves A, B and C, with micro wave C unfolding as an expanding ending diagonal labeled submicro waves (1) through (5).

Subminuette wave x itself formed a double combination labeled micro waves W, X and Y, each subdividing into a zigzag labeled submicro waves (A), (B) and (C), retracing slightly over 38.2% of subminuette wave w.

Subminuette wave y formed another zigzag labeled micro waves A, B and C. Micro wave C reached 61.8% the length of micro wave A and subminuette wave y also reached 61.8% the length of subminuette wave w. In addition, minuette wave (b) itself has retraced 38.2% of minuette wave (a), so we have several wave relationships at different degrees suggesting that minuette wave (b) is complete.

It’s possible that this entire correction is only wave A within minuette wave (b), which would then be unfolding as a flat. But we’ll leave this possibility aside for now unless the developing pattern suggests it back.

This count expects the euro to start moving towards the downside in minuette wave (c) to complete minute wave ii. This would be confirmed by movement below 1.3390.

At 1.3293 minuette wave (c) would reach 38.2% the length of minuette wave (a) and also minute wave ii would retrace 50% of minute wave i, and then at 1.3166 minuette wave (c) would reach 61.8% the length of minuette wave (a) and also minute wave ii would retrace 61.8% of minute wave i.

This wave count is invalidated by movement above 1.34977 as within minuette wave (c) no second wave may move beyond the start of the first wave.

Alternate Hourly Wave Count

EURUSD hourly 2013

This count examines the possibility that subminuette wave y of minuette wave (b) is still unfolding towards the upside, most likely as a zigzag. Within it, micro wave A is probably complete and micro wave B is either complete or near completion.

This count expects the euro soon to continue moving towards the upside in micro wave C to complete subminuette wave y of minuette wave (b). This would be confirmed by movement above 1.3497.

At 1.3551 subminuette wave y would reach 100% the length of subminuette wave w and also minuette wave (b) would retrace nearly 50% of minuette wave (a), then at 1.3627 minuette wave (b) would retrace 61.8% of minuette wave (a).

This wave count is invalidated by movement below 1.33903 as within the zigzag of subminuette wave y micro wave B may not move beyond the start of micro wave A.

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