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EURUSD 11th November, 2013

As the alternate count expected, the euro moved towards the upside throughout Monday’s session, although it’s yet to reach our targets. The developing pattern suggests several possibilities, and our analysis today will focus on the two most likely counts, which have nearly equal probabilities.

We’re updating both main and alternate counts to reflect the most recent price action and to present tighter targets and invalidation points. And as usual we’ll use each count’s invalidation point as confirmation of the other count.

Hourly Main Count

– Invalidation Point: 1.34497
– Confirmation Point: 1.3371
– Downwards Target : 1.3305 – 1.3216
– Wave number: Micro 5
– Wave structure: Motive
– Wave pattern: Ending Diagonal

Hourly Alternate Count

– Invalidation Point: 1.33711
– Confirmation Point: 1.3449
– Upwards Target : 1.3422 – 1.3565
– Wave number: Micro 5
– Wave structure: Motive
– Wave pattern: Impulse or Ending Diagonal

Elliott Wave chart analysis for the EURUSD for 11th November, 2013. Please click on the charts below to enlarge.

Main Daily Wave Count

EURUSD daily 2013

The bigger picture sees the euro within primary wave B to the upside, and within that in intermediate wave (C) to the upside, and within that in minor wave 3 to the upside.

Within minor wave 3, minute waves i unfolded as an impulse labeled minuette waves (i) through (v).

This count expects that the euro is now moving downwards within minute wave ii, which is most likely unfolding as a zigzag.

So far minute wave ii has retraced almost 50% of minute wave i, and it’s likely that the euro has completed or about to complete minuette wave (a), which is to be followed by an upwards correction before continuing downwards again to complete minute wave ii.

At 1.3293 minute wave ii would retrace 50% of minute wave i, and at 1.3166 it would retrace 61.8% of its length.

This wave count is invalidated by movement below 1.27554 as minute wave ii may not move beyond the start of minute wave i. It’s also invalidated by movement above 1.38324 as within the zigzag of minute wave ii minuette wave (b) may not move beyond the start of minuette wave (a).

Main Hourly Wave Count

EURUSD hourly 2013

This count examines the possibility that subminuette wave v of minuette wave (a) is still unfolding, having formed an extension labeled micro waves 1 through 5.

Micro wave 5 seems to be unfolding as an ending diagonal, within which submicro waves (1) and (2) unfolded as zigzags labeled miniscule waves A, B and C.

This count expects the euro to continue moving downwards in submicro wave (3), (4) and (5) to complete micro wave 5 of subminuette wave v of minuette wave (a). This will be somewhat confirmed by movement below 1.3371.

At 1.3305 micro wave 5 would reach 61.8% the length of micro wave 3, and at 1.3216 it would reach 100% of its length.

This wave count is invalidated by movement above 1.34497 as within micro wave 5 no second wave may move beyond the start of the first wave.

Alternate Hourly Wave Count

EURUSD hourly 2013

This count sees that the euro has already completed minuette wave (a), which unfolded an impulse labeled subminuette waves i through v, and it’s now moving upwards in minuette wave (b) which is unfolding either as a zigzag labeled subminuette waves a, b and c, or possibly as a combination. We’ll assume for now that it’s a zigzag until price gives us reason to consider the second possibility.

Subminuette wave b unfolded as a zigzag labeled micro waves A, B and C, retracing about 85% of subminuette wave a, with micro wave C reaching twice the length of micro wave A.

Subminuette wave c is most likely unfolding as an impulse, within which micro waves 1, 2 and 3 are probably complete and micro wave 4 is either complete or very near completion.

This count expects the euro to move soon towards the upside in micro wave 5 of subminuette wave c to complete minuette wave (b). This will be somewhat confirmed by movement above 1.3449.

At 1.3422 micro wave 5 would reach 61.8% of micro wave 1 and also minuette wave (b) would retrace 23.6% of minuette wave (a), and at 1.3443 micro wave 5 would reach 100% of micro wave 1.

This wave count is invalidated by movement below 1.33711 as within the impulse of subminuette wave c micro wave 4 may not enter the price territory of micro wave 1. It’s also invalidated by movement above 1.38324 as within the zigzag of minuette wave (b) subminuette wave b may not move beyond the start of subminuette wave a.

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