Elliott Wave chart analysis for the NZDUSD for 5th October, 2011. Please click on the charts below to enlarge.

This wave count differs from previously published analysis in that upwards movement is seen as A-B-C at cycle degree, rather than 1-2-3 of a new impulse.

We probably will not know for another year which wave count is correct. I will keep this as an alternate.

The structure of cycle wave c may be an ending diagonal, where all subwaves at primary degree are zigzags. This explains the overlapping and deep corrections for this pair in recent months.

(more…)

[Read more →]

Monthly Chart.

Weekly Chart.

Daily Chart.

(more…)

[Read more →]

Last analysis of the Kiwi was invalidated shortly after publication. Never have I been so happy to see a wave count invalidated so quickly. However, that does not help members who may want a valid wave count so here is a quick update.

The monthly chart is unchanged from last analysis.

I have tried several different combinations of first and second waves within upwards movement.

(more…)

[Read more →]

Elliott Wave chart analysis for the NZDUSD for 1st August, 2011. Please click on the charts below to enlarge.

With the Kiwi steadily rising I wanted to get an idea of when this rise may end.

The chart above dates back to 1971. I see the fall ending .3902 in 2001 as the end of a five wave impulse. Within it cycle wave II is a zigzag and cycle wave IV is a flat correction, giving nice alternation. Although cycle wave IV is quite a lot larger in proportion to cycle wave II.

If this historic analysis is correct it is depressing news for many Kiwis. Our exporting sector may continue to suffer for some time yet before we see relief in the form of a falling exchange rate. This is not the picture that I wanted to see, but it is the picture that is clearest.

To analyse the rise from .3902 I have used a monthly chart from Net Dania below.

(more…)

[Read more →]