As both our wave counts from yesterday expected the Euro continued higher. It did not reach the target specified on the alternate hourly wave count.
We present three hourly wave counts today, two expecting downwards movement while the third expects to see the Euro continue a little higher.
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Hugo, thanks for providing more than one count.
It is quite difficult at this stage to figure out what is what with acceptable risk/reward.
I suppose its always wise to wait for mr. Market to give us a better idea.
Just one question on the hourly primary: after b green finishes does c green needs to travel above b orange (today’s high) to complete iv pink?
I am asking this because today high was straight after the FED and those highs/lows within 24h of CB tent to last a bit more than few hours /days, and when they get exceed , more often than not ,signal much further movement in the direction of the brake.
As you noted the invalidation at 1.3362 is not that far away if we were to get a prolonged move higher.
thank you
Gabriele
Im going with alternate two as I think where y0u have orange i is actually wave b. 5 waves down for c and ii. orange i moves to the left. well see….
Dear Gabriele,
Wave (c) green does not need to move above the high set by wave b orange. It is very likely that it would at least move above wave (a) green, and that really is the main thing we would expect.
Movement above b orange is not required and I expect we won’t be seeing that.
I hope that answered you question.
Yes, I have to admit, there are a number of possibilities as far as the wave count goes and unfortunately we can’t provide wave counts that would invalidate and confirm which would have made it much easier to trade.
With that said, sometimes knowing that there isn’t a high probability wave count is more useful than knowing there is one…
Kind regards,
Hugo
Dear Stephen,
That sounds like a good possibility – you are seeing wave ii orange as an expanded flat if I understand correctly?
Will keep this in mind for the end of week analysis and we can see how it works out.
Kind regards,
Hugo
I think maybe your main wave count was correct .During the new york session . I traded all that sideways movent as a triangle for wave b. It worked out… a little scary at times.
Are we in wave four in the EUR/USD ? I believe were in wave four. However, according to Elliott Wave rules it state that Wave 4 (at 1.3217) may never enter in the price territory of Wave 1 (at
1.3145). Why is this rule being broken with the wave 4 entering into wave 1 price territory ? Is this some type of a corrective Wave ? Please explain if you have time . Thanks in advance
Dear Gregory,
I assume you are referring to pink degree?
You are correct about the rule for a fourth wave not allowed to move into the price territory of the first wave.
However, as far as the daily wave count above, the end to wave i pink is at 1.33625 and wave iv pink is currently at 1.32342, so it has not moved into the price territory of wave i pink.
I expect you are seeing wave b orange within the expanded flat correction for wave ii pink as the low, which it is not according to this wave count.
I hope this provided the explanation you were after.
Kind regards,
Hugo
Dear Stephen,
Thanks for the feedback.
Looking at the charts now and we will see what wave counts there are.
Kind regards,
Hugo
Hugo,
Thanks for directing me to the end of wave I pink at 1.33625 . So, when determining the lowest point of wave I pink, one should not consider the corrective wave a,b ….etc. as the lowest point in wave I pink ?
I appreciate your help and incite. Again Thanks.
Dear Gregory,
You are correct.
The Elliott Wave rules and guidelines are based on the actual waves/patterns and not necessarily the extremes. The low of wave i pink is therefore the orthodox end of wave i pink, while the end of wave b orange is essentially just a low price extreme.
I am sure you can see how this can make a huge difference to wave counts.
Let me know if you have any other questions?
Kind regards,
Hugo