Elliott Wave chart analysis for the NZDUSD for 5th October, 2011. Please click on the charts below to enlarge.

This wave count differs from previously published analysis in that upwards movement is seen as A-B-C at cycle degree, rather than 1-2-3 of a new impulse.

We probably will not know for another year which wave count is correct. I will keep this as an alternate.

The structure of cycle wave c may be an ending diagonal, where all subwaves at primary degree are zigzags. This explains the overlapping and deep corrections for this pair in recent months.

However, the ending diagonal is imperfect. Primary wave 3 is shorter than primary wave 1, but primary wave 4 is longer than primary wave 2. The diagonal is probably contracting.

Primary wave 5 cannot be longer than primary wave 3. This wave count has a maximum upwards limit of 0.97522.

At 0.90997 cycle wave c would reach equality with cycle wave a.

It looks like downwards movement has ended for the short term.

The weekly chart shows the structure of this possible ending diagonal more clearly. Primary wave 3 in particular has a strong zigzag look.

A trend channel drawn about this upwards movement on the weekly chart shows that price has reached the bottom of the channel. This may provide support for downwards movement and initiate the next wave up.

Primary wave 4 is a complete zigzag. Intermediate wave (C) is a complete five wave structure.

There is no Fibonacci ratio between intermediate waves (A) and (C).

Within intermediate wave (B) waves A and C blue have no Fibonacci ratio. Wave B blue is a contracting triangle.

Ratios within intermediate wave (C) are: wave 3 blue is 31.62 pips short of 1.618 the length of blue wave 1, and blue wave 5 is 34.7 pips longer than equality with blue wave 1.

Primary wave 5 must subdivide into a zigzag structure. It has a maximum length of 2282.8 pips.

The Kiwi should rise from this point onwards in one final upwards wave which is very likely to make a new high above 0.88435, but does not have to.